Question 4
Consider the following time series data
Month 1 2 3 4 5 6
Value 18 13 16 11 17 14
a.construct a times series plot. what type of pattern exists within the data?
b. delelop a three week moving average forecast for this time series. compute MSE and a forecast for week 7.
c. use a=.2 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts for the time series compute MSE and a forecast for for week 7.
d) compare the three week moving average appraoch with the exponential smoothing approach using a= .2. Which appears to porvide more accurate forecasts based on MSE
e) use a smoothing constant of a=.4 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts. Does a smoothing constant of .2 or .4 appear to provide more accurate forecasts based on MSE. explain
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