Purpose of Assignment
The purpose of this assignment is for students to learn how to make managerial decisions using a case study on Normal Distribution. This case uses concepts from Weeks 1 and 2. It provides students an opportunity to perform sensitivity analysis and make a decision while providing their own rationale. This assignment also shows students that statistics is rarely used by itself. It shows tight integration of statistics with product management.
Assignment Steps
Resources: Microsoft Excel®, SuperFun Toys Case Study, SuperFun Toys Case Study Data Set (Both the Case Study and Excel Data Set attached below).
Review the SuperFun Toys Case Study and Data Set. (Attached Below).
Develop a 1,050-1,155-word analysis case study analysis including the following(side note: my professor is strict on word count and preferes we do not go over or under 10% of the total word count requirement, which for this assignment is 1,050 and points will be taken off if word count is under and will not be read if it is over 10%).
- Introduction
- Use the sales forecaster’s prediction to describe a normal probability distribution that can be used to approximate the demand distribution.
- Sketch the distribution and show its mean and standard deviation. Hint: To find the standard deviation, think Empirical Rule covered in Week 1.(Please show on Excel how these are calculated out; include a brief description within report of the computations and how you sketch a “normal probability distribution” curve step-by-step, is labeled on the Excel “tab” worksheet). Format onto Word Document
- Compute the probability of a stock-out for the order quantities suggested by members of the management team (i.e. 15,000; 18,000; 24,000; 28,000). (Please show on Excel how these are calculated out; include a brief description within report of the computations). Format onto Word Document.
- Compute the projected profit for the order quantities suggested by the management team under three scenarios: pessimistic in which sales are 10,000 units, most likely case in which sales are 20,000 units, and optimistic in which sales are 30,000 units.(Please show on Excel how these are calculated out; include a brief description within report of the computations). Format onto Word Document.
- One of SuperFun’s managers felt the profit potential was so great the order quantity should have a 70% chance of meeting demand and only a 30% chance of any stock- outs. What quantity would be ordered under this policy, and what is the projected profit under the three sales scenarios?
- Conclusion
Format your assignment consistent with APA format, include APA citations and no plagiarism!.
For references, please include direct web link sources.
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