Risk Analysis and Long-Term Investment Decisions
Salvatore’s Chapter 14
Discussion Questions
12. What is the rationale behind the minimax regret rule? What are some less formal and precise methods of dealing with uncertainty? When are these useful?
15. How does the adverse selection problem arise in the credit- card market? How do credit- card companies reduce the adverse selection problem that they face? To what complaint does this give rise?
Problems
Spreadsheet problem #1 **Note: Use table 14-4 as reference
Spreadsheet problem #2 **Note: Use tables 14-5 & 14-6 as reference
Froeb et al’s Chapter 17
Individual Problems
17- 1 Global Expansion
You are the manager of global opportunities for a U. S. manufacturer, who is considering expanding sales into Europe. Your market research has identified three potential market opportunities: England, France, and Germany. If you enter the English market, you have a 0.5 chance of big success (selling 100,000 units at a per- unit profit of $ 8), a 0.3 chance of moderate success (selling 60,000 units at a per- unit profit of $ 6), and a 0.2 chance of failure (selling nothing). If you enter the French market, you have a 0.4 chance of big success (selling 120,000 units at a per- unit profit of $ 9), a 0.4 chance of moderate success (selling 50,000 units at a per- unit profit of $ 6), and a 0.2 chance of failure (selling nothing). If you enter the German market, you have a 0.2 chance of huge success (selling 150,000 units at a per- unit profit of $ 10), a 0.5 chance of moderate success (selling 70,000 units at a per- unit profit of $ 6), and a 0.3 chance of failure (selling nothing). If you can enter only one market, and the cost of entering the market (regardless of which market you select) is $ 250,000, should you enter one of the European markets? If so, which one? If you enter, what is your expected profit?
17- 4 Disposing of Used Assets
Your company has a customer who is shutting down a production line, and it is your responsibility to dispose of the extrusion machine. The company could keep it in inventory for possible future product and estimates that the reservation value is $ 250,000. Your dealings on the second-hand market lead you to believe that there is a 0.4 chance a random buyer will pay $ 300,000, a 0.25 chance the buyer will pay $ 350,000, a 0.1 chance the buyer will pay 400,000, and a 0.25 chance it will not sell. If you must commit to a posted price, what price maximizes profits?
Froeb et al’s Chapter 19
Individual Problems
19- 5 “Soft Selling” and Adverse Selection
Soft selling occurs when a buyer is skeptical of the usefulness of a product and the seller offers to set a price that depends on realized value. For example, suppose you are trying to sell a company a new accounting system that will reduce costs by 10%. Instead of naming a price, you offer to give them the product in exchange for 50% of their cost savings. Describe the information asymmetry, the adverse selection problem, and why soft selling is a successful signal
19-6 Hiring Employees
You need to hire some new employees to staff your start- up venture. You know that potential employees are distributed throughout the population as follows, but you cannot distinguish among them:
|
Employee Value |
Probability |
|
$50,000 |
0.25 |
|
$60,000 |
0.25 |
|
$70,000 |
0.25 |
|
$80,000 |
0.25 |
What is the expected value of five employees you hire?
**Note: Need to consider the adverse selection
**Note: Consider with and without the adverse selection
Salvatore’s Chapter 15
Discussion Questions
7. (a) When can the NPV and the IRR methods of evaluating investment projects provide contradictory results? (b) How can this arise? (c) Which method should then be used? Why?
Problems
8. John Piderit, the general manager of the Western Tool Company, is considering introducing some new tools to the company’s product line. The top management of the firm has identified three types of tools (referred to as projects A, B, and C). The various divisions of the firm have provided the data given in the following table on these three possible projects. The company has a limited capital budget of $ 2.4 million for the coming year. (a) Which project(s) would the firm undertake if it used the NPV investment criterion? (b) Is this the correct decision? Why?
Note: Remember the firm has a limited capital budget of $2.4 million for the coming year. In other words, the firm faces the capital rationing and should use the profitability index as its investment criterion (pp. 637–640).
10. The MacBurger Company, a chain of fast- food restaurants, expects to earn $ 200 million after taxes for the current year. The company has a policy of paying out half of its net after- tax income to the holders of the company’s 100 million shares of common stock. A share of the common stock of the company currently sells for eight times current earnings. Management and outside analysts expect the growth rate of earnings and dividends for the company to be 7.5 percent per year. Calculate the cost of equity capital to this firm.
**Note: Use the dividend valuation model (pp. 642–643). “A share of the common stock of the company currently sells for eight times current dividends.”
Spreadsheet Problem
**Note: Spreadsheet problem: Change the present value coefficient from 1/ (1+0.5) n to 1/ (1+0.05) n. That is the discount rate of 5% instead of 50%
References
APA references are a required part of this assignment
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