CHAPTERS 3 & 17
FORECASTING
PROJECT MANAGEMENT
Upload the completed assignment using the file extension format Lastname_Firstname_Week6.doc.
Note: You can team up with one of your classmates to complete the assignment (not more than two in a team); if you want to work on the assignment individually, that’s also fine. If you are working in teams, then only one submission is required per team; include both the team members’ last names as part of the assignment submission file name as well as in the assignment submission document.
Please provide detailed solutions to the following problems/exercises (4 problems/exercises x 8 points each):
1) Bentley Systems in Exton has developed the tasks, durations, and predecessor relationships in the following table for a software project.
|
Activity |
Duration (weeks) |
Precedes |
|
A (start) |
1 |
B, C |
|
B |
1 |
E |
|
C |
4 |
F |
|
E |
2 |
F |
|
F (end) |
2 |
– |
a) Find the critical path.
b) What is the project completion time?
2) Boscov’s in Reading has developed the tasks, durations, and predecessor relationships in the following table for building new retail outlets.
|
|
|
Time Estimate (in weeks) |
||
|
Activity |
Immediate Predecessor(s) |
Optimistic |
Most Likely |
Pessimistic |
|
A |
– |
4 |
8 |
10 |
|
B |
A |
2 |
8 |
24 |
|
C |
A |
8 |
12 |
16 |
|
D |
A |
4 |
6 |
10 |
|
E |
B |
1 |
2 |
3 |
|
F |
E, C |
6 |
8 |
20 |
|
G |
E, C |
2 |
3 |
4 |
|
H |
F |
2 |
2 |
2 |
|
I |
F |
6 |
6 |
6 |
|
J |
D, G, H |
4 |
6 |
12 |
|
K |
I, J |
2 |
2 |
3 |
a) Find the critical path (based on the calculation of estimated times) and the time on the critical path.
b) What is the activity variance along the critical path?
c) What is the probability of completion of the project before week 36?
3) The table below gives the number of pints of type O+ blood used at Presbyterian Hospital, Denton in the past six weeks.
|
Weeks |
Pints Used |
|
1 |
360 |
|
2 |
389 |
|
3 |
410 |
|
4 |
381 |
|
5 |
368 |
|
6 |
374 |
a) Forecast the demand for week 7 using a 3 week moving average.
b) Use a 3 week weighted moving average, with weights of 0.1, 0.3, and 0.6, using 0.6 for the most recent week. Forecast demand for week 7.
c) Compute the forecast for week 7 using exponential smoothing with a forecast for week 1 of 360 and alpha = 0.2.
4) The table below gives the number of accidents that occurred on Lincoln Highway during the past four months:
|
Month |
Number of Accidents |
|
1 |
30 |
|
2 |
40 |
|
3 |
60 |
|
4 |
90 |
Forecast the number of accidents that will occur in month 5, using least squares regression.
Due by 11.59 pm May 12th
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