Due Mon, 2/16 (11:59AM). Submit your Montreaux demand forecast and sensitivity analysis (Answer Q1, Parts A and B from “Session 12”). Please submit BOTH the .xls file and PDF of the spreadsheet.
- Question #1 for Individual Assignment (submit Parts A and B):
- Part A – Using the forecast model for the healthy dark chocolate product with fruit tested in the BASES II test in August 2012, what is your forecast of the demand for the chocolate product?
- Part B – Conduct a sensitivity analysis by using the facts provided regarding consumer awareness, ACV and repeat rates for mediocre, average, and excellent products.
- Hints:
- The necessary data is contained in Exhibit 5
- Refer to the Excel spreadsheet supplement from Digital Coursepack
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For Part A, download the spreadsheet and fill out the model to get the baseline case (I believe the tab is called “Student Template”). The goal of Part B (sensitivity analysis) is to analyze how adjustments to the marketing plan impact the baseline forecast at the three levels of repurchase — e.g., what would the forecast look like if you were to assume low-support (awareness), low-ACV and mediocre repeat rate? Med-support, med-ACV and mediocre repeat rate? And so on. Hint – there are 9 forecasts in total.
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