Managers guide for forecasting

In this course, the Discussion Boards will focus on practical issues regarding analytics in the practical world. If you do not want to comment on your organization (due to confidentiality issues or if your experience does not fit the Assignment) then comment on another organization that you are familiar with. You may also do research on a company and base your answers on your findings.

Remember that you must answer the discussion question by Saturday and must post on three separate days. Please see the syllabus for details on Discussion Board requirements.

This discussion is based on the article “Manager’s guide to forecasting” by David Georgoff and Robert Murdick from Harvard Business Review. Make sure to acquire this article before starting the discussion.

In this course, you will touch on a few forecasting methods, but there are many more approaches available to the managers who wish to do more. This week’s article provides an overview of many forecasting methodologies and provides a framework through which you can explore their differences.

Your objective in this discussion is to learn to analyze a specific forecasting situation and identify the best suited methodology. In this discussion, first describe a specific forecasting need in your organization. Then use the provided template to analyze the situation and identify a forecasting methodology that you would recommend to be used. Finally provide a description of how this methodology would be executed. The analysis will be based on the table shown on page 4 and 5 of the article. This table lists several questions about the nature of the forecasting situation, such as the urgency, detail required and costs factors, and provides an overview of how well various forecasting methodologies will fit.

Please note that these two pages (4 & 5) go side by side- you may wish to print them out and place them next to each other to read across the rows comfortably.

Recommendations

What is your recommended forecast methodology? Describe how this forecast will be executed: Who will do it, where will the data come from, how frequently will it be repeated and how will the results be used?

Use the following format to answer these questions (copy/paste and fill between the headings):

Forecast need

Describe what question this forecast aims to answer, and why it is important for your organization to have this information.

Forecast situation analysis

Identify a forecast method by filling in the table below. The full table is on page 4 and 5 of the article. You should fill the table by answering the questions in the “Questions” column (not shown in the table below). Your answers will lead you to the methods that are most suitable for your forecasting need. You can reformat the table any way you like, as long as you answer all the questions for all the dimensions.

Recommendations

What is your recommended forecast methodology? Describe how this forecast will be executed: Who will do it, where will the data come from, how frequently will it be repeated and how will the results be used.