Analyze the data over the period 1959Q1 to the present (for quarterly data).
In your post, please complete the following tasks:
- (30 points) LONG-TERM: Compute the average annualized rate of growth for each variable over the entire time period. How do they compare? Answer in one paragraph.
- (70 points) SHORT-TERM: Use the business cycle peak and trough dates shown below to determine the annualized growth rate of each variable during the following business cycle episodes:
- The expansion that ran from February 1961 to December 1969 (or 1961Q1 to 1969Q4).
- The recession that ran from November 1973 to March 1975 (or 1973Q4 to 1975Q1).
- The expansion that ran from November of 1982 to July of 1990 (or 1982Q4 to 1990Q3).
- The recession that ran from December 2007 to June 2009 (or 2007Q4 to 2009Q2).
- The current expansion that ran from June 2009 to February 2020 (or 2009Q2 to 2020Q1).
- The recession starting in February 2020 to the most recent data (or 2020Q1 to most recent available quarter).
For each episode, calculate the annualized growth rates of each variable and present the data in an informative table. Then write one paragraph explaining how your variable of interest and the corresponding macro variable behave in expansions and recessions (at the least in the ones selected above).
To summarize, your deliverables for this project are as follows:
- An original discussion post with the following
- One short paragraph about long-run trends
- An informative table about growth rates during the selected expansions and recessions
- One paragraph about short-run fluctuations
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