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How to create a better theory and hypothesis for my political science senior assignment

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I am currently in my senior assignment and am required to come up with a hypothesis and theory about my topic. I have chose to look at independents found an interesting dataset com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx” target=”_blank” rel=”noopener noreferrer” data-auth=”NotApplicable” id=”LPlnk558649″>https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx The goal is to utilize this dataset to look at the change between the percentage of people who identify as independent and the change in the percentage of Democrat and Republican percentages. I am utilizing intervening variables of party control to observe if independents are more likely to swing in the direction of the party in control. I will attach what i currently have written. I need help developing a theory that makes sense because one of my professors said he was having a hard time following my theory. What specific changes should I make to my current theory to create a more understood theory?

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