The Conference Board index methodology is described online here (Links to an external site.) and here (Links to an external site.)).
Since The Conference Board doesn’t distribute the ISM data, you can use the contributions for that component that are already calculated and posted in the same database. I attach that file here download.
Note this is not the raw data for the component. The month-to-month change has already been calculated and the standardization factor (the volatility adjustment) has already been applied to it. So you include this in the step directly before summing up the component contributions (in step 3 (Links to an external site.)). Let me know if you have any questions.
- Using the same methodology, calculate the leading index, LEI, starting from May 1991 instead of starting from 1959 (this allows you to sidestep complications arising from two periods used for volatility adjustment and trend adjustment, namely 1959-1983 and 1984-2017. You should use 1991-2017 as the sample period for volatility adjustment factors. How different are the factors you calculate from the ones published in the technical notes by The Conference Board (Links to an external site.)) (50 pts.)
- Compare by making a graph of the LEI you calculated with the published leading economic index. What are the visible differences? The differences should be minimal (50 pts)
Indexes published by The Conference Board are online and in this file from last year: TheConferenceBoard_USLEI_Historical_Data.xlsx download as well as on the website.
Describe any differences you see between the version you calculated and the published version online. Briefly discuss the factors that cause the differences.


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