Note: To ensure grading of your submission, please submit your work in the correct folder on D2L

Statistics Canada recently announced that results from the 2021 federal census will be released later this year. Population projections are a common way that can estimate the outcome of the federal census ahead of official results. In this assignment, groups are asked to select one geographic area within Canada (municipal or provincial) to analyze demographic patterns. Sample areas which can be used for the assignment follow:

This assignment requires groups to complete a population projection using the cohort component with residual migration. You will complete a population projection using the “Assignment 1 Cohort Component with Migration Template 2022” file, and the appropriate municipal and provincial data found through the census website. The template provided requires students to input population data and demographic rates to generate the 2021 population projection for your chosen area. Only fill in the template cells highlighted in yellow, do not adjust the sheet formulas. Instructions for retrieving the census data can be found on D2L under “Week 2 –  Retrieving Census Data 2022”. 

Your submission should include (but is not limited to) the following tasks:

1. Complete a 2021 cohort component with residual migration population template to complete the projection based on the 2011 and 2016 population data and the 2016 rates using your chosen geographic area
2. Analyze the area’s population and cohort distribution changes using the provided population data and the 2021 projection. Your discussion should reference past, current and projected population in a longitudinal analysis
3. Discuss the projected impact of migration on population growth in your chosen area.
   
   

The Report

Present your findings in a report that will include a written analysis of the results accompanied by appropriate tables and charts. The purpose of the report is to analyze trends in population projections and discuss the results. Include an appendix showing the cohort-component template with residual migration population projection table and any other supporting material.

Part One: Population Projection

Cohort Component Population Projection 

Project the 2021 population for your chosen geography based on the cohort-component with residual migration approach, using relevant provincial rates. Clearly explain the method, summarize the results, and include the completed template in your appendix.

Part Two: Analysis and Discussion

Discuss the area’s population change based on the population in 2011 and 2016 as well as the 2021 projection.

This section should include the percentage change using 2011-2016, 2016-2021, and 2011- 2021 and comment on the results. Use tables and/or charts to support your discussion. 

Age Cohort Breakdown

Produce a table and/or chart showing the age cohort population breakdown. Present the age cohort distribution using percentages for the given 2011 and 2016 population data as well as the projected 2021 population. For this section, use the cohort age groups provided in the template. Examine the data for 2011, 2016 and 2021 based on the distribution of cohort population percentages. Discuss the composition of the area’s population, identify the trends, and discuss the results.

Migration

Discuss the projected impact of the projected migration on the 2021 your chosen area’s cohort component model projections. Use tables and/or charts to support your discussion. 

Criteria used to assess the assignment:

1. An ability to produce a clear and concise report
2. Evaluation of the population projection results
3. Presentation of the cohort distribution and population change
4. Explanation of the methodologies, concepts and rates included in the report
5. Brief discussion of the planning implication of the results 
6. Data presentation using appropriate tables and graphs

Treating the suggested outline as a checklist and merely checking off the boxes will be considered a C. Evidence of effort and insight will be rewarded.